The hottest scrap falling trend may not be sustain

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The trend of scrap falling price may not continue

the falling price came off guard. When the steel market continued to decline, when Tangshan billet fell by 100 yuan/ton a single time, scrap began to decrease by yuan/ton, and the mood of "rising" was not satisfied, it was poured with cold water

the scrap market has always been "selling down rather than rising". Since the price fell, there has been sufficient arrival volume everywhere, especially in East China. The shape and size of most steel (1) samples are shown in Fig. 2 (2), Fig. 2 (3), Fig. 2 (4), table 2 (1) and table 2 (2) (2); Under the atmosphere of Tangshan billet plummeted by 100 yuan/ton, steel enterprises happily and righteously slashed their purchase prices. It is understood that at present, the overall inventory level of scrap steel in steel mills is not too high, and the situation of each plant varies greatly. The amount of scrap steel is from 4 days to a month. Then, who gave the confidence

the most obvious factor is environmental protection and production restriction. Recently, Mercer, chief analyst of true lithium research, said that all parts of the north have successively introduced detailed measures for comprehensive atmospheric management in autumn and winter; Shanxi, Handan, Xingtai, Shijiazhuang and other places have already started to limit production. However, as the sintering production is only limited, and Tangshan, the "leader", has not made any action, the market has not experienced major fluctuations, and the purchase of scrap steel has not changed significantly. Since September 25, Tangshan has limited the production of pellet shaft furnaces and sintering machines by 50%, and the mentality of merchants has significantly weakened

it is understood that the above practice of restricting sintering production in the short term will not affect the production and even procurement of enterprises. In particular, many steel mills have prepared enough raw materials such as sinter in advance. However, if the time is long, especially the production is limited in the heating season, the sintering inventory of steel mills will be gradually exhausted (lump ore cannot completely replace sinter), which will inevitably cause a series of negative suppression from procurement to production; In addition, according to the latest news, Handan has determined that the blast furnace production of each steel plant is limited by 50%, and the implementation date is from October 1 to March next year. Based on the consideration that the production limit will continue to be implemented in the heating season, some enterprises have begun to reduce the purchase volume, and a few enterprises have begun to stop collecting from time to time

the most direct factor is that scrap is not out of stock. As businesses are reluctant to sell scrap, the higher the price, the more opportunities for battery development. Domestic products are still at the low end, and the more out of stock they are. In fact, due to the ban of medium frequency furnaces this year, a large number of scrap resources are surplus, especially light scrap. Although long process steel mills have increased the amount of scrap since the second quarter, it can not fully make up for the gap in scrap market demand caused by the "disappearance" of medium frequency furnaces; The social volume of scrap resources is very large. Once the price falls, the arrival volume of steel mills will be more and more

the most fatal factor is the insufficient demand for steel. The real estate of large steel users has passed its peak period, and although infrastructure investment continues to make efforts, due to the long time limit and the large supply of steel in China, it has not given a strong boost to steel consumption. The demand for steel has been essentially low; Recently, many places in the north have issued the policy of four to six months of construction site downtime in autumn and winter in China. The demand for construction steel is expected to decline significantly, which coincides with the national day and the Mid Autumn Festival. In order to avoid the risks after the festival, steel shipments have increased, and the decline in steel prices is difficult to change

this round of falling price trend of scrap steel can be said to be a beautiful "blocking war" fought by steel mills in combination with environmental protection policies in a timely manner, and scrap steel is perfectly collected at a low price. Judging from the current situation, there is no room for scrap to rise, and the high price in the early stage is difficult to break. However, it also depends on the actual implementation of the later production restriction policy. However, on the premise of a slight improvement in the downstream steel market, the scrap price has fallen to the psychological bottom line of most businesses, and the arrival of goods in some regions has begun to decrease, with limited room for further decline in the short term

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