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Paper industry - era of meager profits

domestic paper enterprises will accept a greater test in 2003

first, the sharp drop in tariffs on imported paper is the main reason for the price reduction in the first half of this year. Imported paper still has advantages over domestic paper in quality, especially in price

second, the anti-dumping of paper against South Korea, the United States and Canada will expire in July, and the "fate" of the anti-dumping is not clear at present.

Third, in the second half of the year, new projects of Huatai, Yueyang and jindaxing will be put into operation, which may increase the output of 180000 tons this year (considering the time that can be operated this year, the shifted L1 is ab+2bc or ab+bc+bc1 respectively)

fourth, the international pulp price has increased, and the 8 us waste has been maintained at 130 US dollars/ton at Chinese ports, putting considerable pressure on the manufacturing costs of domestic paper mills

industry experts pointed out that paper has entered an era of low profits, and domestic paper mills have been struggling under the impact of production capacity expansion and imported paper

the gross profit margin of the domestic paper industry fell sharply. At the same time, there are seven domestic paper manufacturers, including Chenming paper, Huatai Co., Ltd., Nanping Paper, Heilong Co., Ltd. (Qiqihar paper mill), Yibin Paper, Jilin paper and Jiangxi paper. The production of these seven enterprises accounted for 41% of the total domestic production in 2002. According to the financial statements released in 2002, except that Chenming, Huatai and Nanping are relatively ideal, other paper mills are relatively difficult, with an average gross profit rate of 17%, which is also due to the contribution of higher gross profit rates of Chenming and Huatai. Affected by the fixed tariff of imported paper adjusted to 8.5% and the cancellation of the sliding rate tax, the average gross profit margin of these seven enterprises in the first quarter of this year further fell to 10.3%. In addition, due to the serious wait-and-see mentality of both sides at the beginning of the year, the price was introduced later this year than in previous years, and the price adjustment was not completed until March and April, with an average decline of 120 yuan. The price reduction factor has not been fully reflected in the quarterly report of the first quarter. It can be expected that the gross profit margin of enterprises will further decline, and the overall situation is not optimistic

according to the analysis of insiders, if the product price falls further, the structure of the paper industry will face adjustment

according to the data released by the customs in the first quarter of this year, China imported 39461 tons of paper, an increase of 14.9% over the same period last year, with a resolution of 300000 yards. At present, paper prices in North America are on the rise. Last year, China's import volume was 199238 tons, which is expected to increase this year compared with last year, but it will not appear at the annual level, which is estimated to be between 250000 and 300000 tons

the progress of tariff adjustment in China is 200. It has been recycled for 3 years, 8.5% in 2004, 7.5% in 2005 and 6.5% in 2006. Domestic paper prices are tending to keep pace with international market prices. For example, the quotation of Guangzhou paper mill in Guangzhou at the beginning of the year was 4800 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 200 yuan on the basis of last year's price. Although the profit of the paper mill was running out, the decline of 200 yuan was not immediately recognized until the price dust settled in April. This recognition period fully reflects that the integration with the international market price can not be blocked by individual paper mills. With the decline of tariffs, this feature will become more obvious

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